Your portfolio
Portfolio value at retirement $1,000,000
$
Annual spending $40,000
$
Retirement age 65
Assumptions
Annual portfolio return
6%
Annual inflation rate
2.5%
Show rates
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
3.0% withdrawal
—
$0/year · $0/month
3.5% withdrawal
—
$0/year · $0/month
4.0% withdrawal
—
$0/year · $0/month
4.5% withdrawal
—
$0/year · $0/month
Your withdrawal rate
0%
Years portfolio lasts
—
Break-even age
—
Portfolio value over time by withdrawal rate
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Year-by-year at your withdrawal rate
| Year | Age | Withdrawal | Portfolio start | Portfolio end |
|---|
How withdrawal rates work: Your withdrawal rate is your first-year withdrawal divided by your starting portfolio value. Each year, you withdraw the same dollar amount adjusted for inflation — not a fixed percentage of the current portfolio. A $1M portfolio at 4% means $40,000 in year one; year two is $40,000 × (1 + inflation rate), regardless of portfolio performance. This is the method used in Bengen's original 4% rule research.
This calculator uses a simplified model with constant average returns. Actual retirement outcomes depend on sequence of returns — the order in which good and bad years occur — which this model does not simulate. Historical Monte Carlo analysis suggests the 4% rule has approximately 90% success over 30 years; actual outcomes vary. Not financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making retirement income decisions.